by Curlan Campbell
- 2025 Wet and Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum scheduled for 22 May
- Primary concerns include extreme heat, Saharan dust, unpredictable behaviour of tropical cyclones
- Caribbean experienced exceptionally high temperatures in 2023 and 2024
The Caribbean is grappling with an escalating climate crisis characterised by record-breaking heat, heightened health risks, and changing weather patterns that are challenging traditional forecasting models, according to Adrian Trotman, Head of the Caribbean Regional Climate Centre and Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Trotman is among a group of meteorologists, hydrologists, research scientists, emergency managers, academics, and weather broadcasters who are gathered in Grenada for the 2025 Wet and Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), scheduled for 22 May. As part of this meeting, the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) will also host a Regional Media Training Workshop, focusing on Communicating Climate, Services, and Impacts. Both events are supported by the Intra-ACP Climate Services and Related Applications (ClimSA) Caribbean Programme, with funding provided by the European Union (EU).
Trotman outlined several emerging and growing threats facing the region during the 2024 wet season and beyond. The primary concerns include extreme heat, incursions of Saharan dust, and the unpredictable behaviour of tropical cyclones — all of which present new challenges for public health, disaster management, and environmental sustainability. “We are witnessing hazards that previously didn’t receive much attention. Now, they are at the forefront, especially heat stress and Saharan dust.”
According to Trotman, 2023 and 2024 have been the 2 hottest years on record globally, with the Caribbean experiencing exceptionally high temperatures during both years. He noted that 2023 set numerous temperature records, which were then surpassed in 2024, even at night. “When nighttime temperatures are this high, the body is unable to recover from the daytime heat. As a result, people start the next day already heat-stressed. This is a growing public health concern,” he explained.
Communities across the region have reacted by purchasing more fans and air conditioning units, but Trotman emphasised that these are short-term coping mechanisms. Without a long-term strategy for heat resilience, vulnerable populations will remain at significant risk.
Trotman also highlighted the dual threat posed by Saharan dust, which has become increasingly frequent and intense. The dust is known to worsen respiratory issues and eye conditions, a concern being addressed through collaboration with the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) and national health ministries. These efforts aim to establish early warning systems and health advisories across the Caribbean.
The second threat involves weather disruption when Saharan dust travels on the Saharan Air Layer, a dry atmospheric mass that suppresses convection and reduces rainfall as well as hurricane formation. This phenomenon was particularly evident in 2023 when Saharan dust hindered the development of tropical cyclones mid-season, despite an early start to the hurricane season with systems like Hurricane Beryl.
“We still cannot forecast Saharan dust events on a seasonal scale,” Trotman admitted. “Currently, we rely on 7- to 14-day models to anticipate dust incursions.”
Despite these new and emerging hazards, Trotman stressed that traditional threats such as flooding and tropical cyclones continue to be pressing concerns during the wet season. Heavy rainfall can lead to flooding that damages homes, contaminates water supplies, and increases sedimentation. In coastal areas, storm surges add another layer of risk.
“Water is the deadliest part of a tropical cyclone,” Trotman said. “Storm surges from the sea and floodwaters from inland rain can impact communities from both directions.” While winds from Category 3 or higher storms are destructive, the water-related effects typically cause the most widespread devastation.
Trotman concluded with a call for enhanced regional coordination and greater investment in climate resilience, particularly in health, infrastructure, and meteorological forecasting. “We’re not just discussing weather anymore. These are multi-sectoral threats with real, daily impacts on people’s health, safety, and livelihoods. We must remain vigilant and proactive.”