The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, is expected to be a busy one, according to a new report released on Thursday from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
CSU expects 17 named tropical cyclones during the season, nine of which will develop into hurricanes and four of which will strengthen into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
“We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” the CSU report warned. “We estimate that 2025 will have 17 named storms (average is 14.4), 85 named storm days (average is 69.4), nine hurricanes (average is 7.2), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), four major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and nine major hurricane days (average is 7.4),” the CSU report explained. “The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above its long-period average,” CSU added. CSU defines a hurricane day as “a measure of hurricane activity, one unit of which occurs as four six-hour periods during which a tropical cyclone is observed or is estimated to have hurricane-force wind.”
CSU also predicted that during the 2025 season, the Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a type of equation that measures a named storm’s potential for wind destruction, and the Net Tropical Cyclone Activity, an overall indication of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity, [will] be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
CSU Hurricane Season Forecast Factors
CSU highlighted how sea surface temperatures and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, including La Nina, El Niño, and a neutral transition phase, can influence tropical development, with a neutral phase likely to occur this year.
A previous Source article explained that, during a La Niña cycle, the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, affecting global weather. During La Nina, wind shear – a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere – also typically decreases in the Atlantic Ocean. A reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development. This pattern is the opposite of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific, which usually increases wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, helping to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.
“Scientists call [the two opposing climate patterns of El Niño and La Nina] the ‘El Niño-Southern Oscillation’ cycle. El Niño and La Nina can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies,” according to NOAA.
A neutral phase of ENSO occurs when neither El Niño nor La Nina are happening, and this phase can also help to reduce wind shear across the Atlantic. An ENSO neutral pattern may occur during at least part of this year’s hurricane season.
“Current La Nina conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall,” CSU said.
“Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time,” CSU explained. “A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Nina) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” CSU noted.
Additional factors that contributed to the creation of CSU’s forecast include using statistical models and analyzing previous hurricane seasons to generate the expectations for the upcoming season.
“Certain years in the historical record have global oceanic and atmospheric trends which are similar to 2025,” CSU explained. “These years also provide useful clues as to likely levels of activity that the forthcoming 2025 hurricane season may bring,” CSU continued. “For this early April extended range forecast, we determine which of the prior years in our database have distinct trends in key environmental conditions which are similar to current March 2025 conditions and, more importantly, projected August–October 2025 conditions.”
Possible Caribbean Impacts
The Source contacted CSU for additional details regarding potential impacts on the Caribbean region this year. Lauren Beard, a research assistant with CSU, provided the following information.
“We are predicting a 56 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean for 2025, [which] is above the historical average of 47 percent. This elevated risk highlights the importance of staying [prepared]. Staying informed through trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center is critical as the season approaches.”
Beard continued, “Sea surface temperatures [across the Atlantic and Caribbean] are above-average, creating favorable conditions for storm development and intensification. On a more positive note, while sea surface temperatures remain elevated, they are slightly cooler than the record-breaking 2024 levels, which could temper some storm activity. However, the overall forecast still calls for heightened activity.”
Beard offered the following advice for individuals across the USVI ahead of the season:
“The biggest piece of advice I would give to both residents and visitors across the islands is that it only takes one storm [that could affect the islands] to make this an active season for your area. A great way to be prepared is to have a plan before the season starts on June 1.”
AccuWeather Forecast Calls for Similar Hurricane Season Predictions
The CSU hurricane season forecast was released shortly after AccuWeather released its predictions for the number of cyclones expected this year. Similar to the CSU’s outlook, AccuWeather is expecting an active hurricane season. A previous Source article explained the following information about AccuWeather’s expectations.
“AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and direct impacts to the United States,” according to a comment in the AccuWeather article from Alex DaSilva, the company’s lead hurricane expert.
“Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including seven [to] 10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts,” DaSilva said. “DaSilva added that there is a 20 percent chance of more than 18 named storms this year,” the AccuWeather report stated.
Stay Informed
Hurricane season begins on June 1, and USVI residents and visitors are urged to be prepared. Individuals can find information about the weather, including severe weather alerts, from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency website and the National Weather Service.
A daily weather post is also published on the Source Weather Page, where readers can view weather forecast videos.
