It’s time to dust off the umbrellas — the rainy season is upon us.
There has been little sign of rain on Grand Cayman so far in May, but there was a portent of things to come this week as the US National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed the first tropical wave came off the coast of Africa on 19 May.
Each year, the National Hurricane Center tracks approximately 60 tropical waves, which are areas of low pressure that can sometimes lead to the formation of tropical cyclones. These waves usually track east to west across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean Sea and are responsible for bringing a lot of the moisture that affects Caribbean islands over the summer months.
Although this week’s tropical wave is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, it is a signal of the annual climactic transition from dry season to rainy season in the Atlantic basin.
Even if the total rainfall amount on Grand Cayman in May falls short of the average for the month, which appears likely at this point, residents should remember to have an umbrella handy from now through November, when dry season begins.
Longer-range models are starting to show a slight increase in moisture is likely in the western Caribbean Sea, including in the Cayman area, at the start of June. For the rest of the month of May, however, the generally dry conditions are expected to continue for the Cayman Islands.
Farmers waiting for rain
Any rain in the coming weeks will be welcomed, especially by Cayman’s farmers.
Between December 2024 and April of this year, 27% less rain was recorded on Grand Cayman compared to the statistical average — despite the fact that April had 150% more rain than average.
“We are getting concerned about the mango crop,” said Gary Rankin, who farms in the Bodden Town area.
“We are constantly watering, but the ground water is quite salty in this area, and we are reaching a point where the trees really need the rain.”
Farmer Hamlin Stephenson said the rain shower Tuesday wasn’t enough to saturate the ground.
“Farms that don’t have irrigation systems are starting to struggle,” he said, “but in North Side and in East End, they are still able to pump good water out of the ground, so the crops up there are still holding up pretty well.”
Atlantic hurricane season starts on 1 June
On 22 May, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration issued its seasonal forecast for the 2025 hurricane season.
The NOAA forecasters predict above-normal hurricane activity with 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39mph or higher) and 6-10 of these named storms strengthening to become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111mph or higher).
The forecasters said several factors, such as warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and forecasts for a weak wind-shear environment, led them to conclude that the 2025 hurricane season will bring above-normal activity. Higher wind shear tends to inhibit the development of hurricanes and tropical storms.
