Remember that spike in prices in July 2022, when US monthly inflation reached a forty-year high of 9.1%? You know. The same month the last administration imposed 13% GST? And when pandemic supply interruptions intensified with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? In fact, cumulative US prices climbed more than ten percent by 2023 and added another 2.9% last year, edging toward 14% overall.[1] And soon, tariffs? Like many Anguillians, nearly 9 million Americans have taken on multiple jobs primarily to “make ends meet” – the highest number since establishing the metric in 1994.[2]
Is it “just money”? No. As Bill Clinton was famously advised when running for US president just two years earlier, “It’s the economy, stupid.” [3]
Inflation and Instability
From pushing vulnerable households toward food insecurity, greater health challenges, and impacting students’ ability to stay in school, compounded here by split school shifts, economic factors can exacerbate social fractures. In fact, “Emerging research finds that inflation rates are associated with crime rates both within the United States and cross-nationally.” In a study of 65 countries over 50 years through 2015, inflation was “hypothesized to increase crime by incentivizing illegal markets and organized criminal activity and by reducing the legitimacy of social institutions.”[4]
Additional research has shown, “…violent crime began increasing in the mid 2010s, spiking in 2020, around the time inflation began to increase.” These findings also corresponded to the inflation in 2022.[5] However, this trend diverged from long-held associations with “acquisitive crime — that is, illegal acts committed for monetary gain, such as theft and property crimes” – wherein the link between inflation and homicide was demonstrated in 17 US cities in 2019.[5]
Yet another study using “cross-national data over 30 years to examine this relationship found that higher rates of Inflation had significant effects on homicide, robbery, and burglary rates in several European nations and the United States.”[5] Rosenfeld explained, “As prices rise, the demand for cheap stolen goods grows, which strengthens incentives to increase the supply of stolen merchandises. Property crime rates increase. Violent crimes also increase as transactions multiply in ‘stateless’ locations beyond the purview of formal authorities. The process operates in reverse as price increases diminish.” [6]
International Interventions
Beyond its proverbial impact on wallets, the US Federal Reserve has focused intently on inflation by managing interest rates since the pandemic. Despite concerns about increased job losses and risks of recidivism, inflation has remained a distinct driver of crime.[5] Notably, higher unemployment during the recession of “…2008–9 broke this pattern [of associating general economic conditions with social stability]; crime rates fell or were flat…” As such, further “research on the relationship between short-run changes in crime and inflation suggest that low inflation rates help explain the absence of crime increases during the recent recession.”[6]
However, “when prices and crime are both rising [governments need]…to adequately fund public safety…” US interventions have included “evidence-based law enforcement safety and de-escalation training, mental health resources for law enforcement officers, and victim-centered training…”[5]
Inflation Impact in Anguilla?
While trying to absorb one shock after another, we must consider the impact of inflation on our society in this context, as well. If we examine inflation during the last two administrations, this relationship appears consistent here: That is, from 2015 through 2019, we experienced a net 1% inflation. However, cumulative inflation from 2020 through 2024 was 9.8%.[7] Indeed, can such trends be ignored with 30 gun-related incidents from April 2022 to March 2023, climbing to 42 in the same months from 2023 to 2024, as recent examples here in Anguilla?[8]
Increasing Instability vs. Inching Inflation?
Despite a dreadful start to 2025, inflation reportedly eased by 0.4% from the prior quarter – but added ~1% over the same months of 2024 in Anguilla.[7] How so?
Here, they measure inflation with a “weighted” basket of categories spanning food, housing and related utilities, equipment and maintenance, transportation, and communication. Others include alcohol, clothing, health, recreation, education, restaurants and hotels, and “miscellaneous” with lesser weights. Notably, restaurants are given one-third of the weight of food and non-alcoholic beverages; wherein, restaurant prices increased dramatically, while food finally declined by 2%. Conversely, transportation is weighted more than food and 4x more than restaurants![8] Such calculations yielded 0.8% inflation for the year, but category shifts could affect some more than others across the “basket” of goods.[7]
What are we missing?
Measuring inflation can be challenging, even in the US, where they include and weight ~80,000 goods and services in their consumer basket. However, their assumptions “…may not accurately represent the experiences of specific subgroups… low-income consumers devote a far larger share of expenditures to food than their wealthier counterparts” and some have suggested price indexing by income levels.[9] In Anguilla, busy families dependent on prepared food saw 10.8% higher restaurant and hotel category prices last year and another 20.3% last quarter compared to 2024.[8] So, have some absorbed much more than 9.8% cumulative inflation – and how many troubled families are among them?
What else are we missing? Taxes and fees are not in the basket. Government salaries and expenses have increased 67% since 2019. One alarming example is the lottery, which many sociologists consider a tax, especially among fragile households. Since 2019, lottery taxes, a fraction of ticket prices, have grown from $416 thousand to $3.3 million, an 8x increase now representing over $33 million of gambling bets. Another is the Levy, which has soared over 60% from $16 to $26 million, $10 million more taken from families’ disposable income – leaving less to spend on necessities in that inflationary basket. And, one notable, yet hidden inflation driver is Excise tax, now taking $7 million more from the People than in 2019 when enacted.[10]
A Responsible Response?
Our government laudably scheduled town halls to address concerns about recent events.[11] However, given irrefutable links between inflation and instability, one might imagine a much higher priority placed on their promise to replace GST at the port with earlier duties, and to remove GST entirely from stores, wholesalers, manufacturers, which include ubiquitous bakeries – and, with perhaps many benefitting far more than the statistics suggest, ending GST in restaurants.
For most, GST relief would reverse up to 13% of inflation to lighten that hefty basket we must carry just to get by. In turn, for some, such relief could mean affording one or two more days off, or nights spent with family in lieu of overtime, or another bag or two of groceries a month ? and for everyone, the dignity of living in a democracy that responds to the will of the electorate that voted on that promise.
Repeal GST – and pass a balanced budget bill. Now.
This article reflects issues raised on July 5, 2021, at the House Select Committee on GST Public Hearing. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832; [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinecastrillon /2025/03/24/why-a-record-89-million-americans-are-working-multiple-jobs/; [3] https://politicaldictionary.com/words/its-the-economy-stupid/; [4] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1057567720981624; [5] https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/3721574-controlling-inflation-is-crime-prevention/; [6] https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/677665?journalCode=cj; [7] https://statistics.gov.ai/PublishedDocuments/AXA%20Consumer%20Price%20Index%202025%201st%20quarter.pdf; [8] https://www.gov.ai/document/2024-04-24-124832_1080689303.pdf;[9] https://econofact.org/how-do-peoples-experiences-of-inflation-differ; [10] GoA Budgets, 2019-2025; [11] https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1099035152270222&set=a.361333926040352
