The new government has been sworn in, a new name agreed and Premier André Ebanks sits at the head of a group of MPs representing all corners of the islands. Now the real work begins.
The National Coalition For Caymanians, made up of two new political parties and three independent candidates, moved quickly on from the pomp and ceremony of the swearing-in celebrations to the serious business of putting together a joint policy platform to steer them through the next four years.
What might that include? What should it include? Today, the Compass Issues section takes a closer look at their manifestos and public statements, and talks to political analysts Mario Ebanks and James E. Whittaker, plus a handful of political sources, about the key matters in the new government’s in tray.
1. Agree a joint policy platform that can hold the coalition together
A smart early move on behalf of the coalition partners has been to prioritise a written document outlining policy priorities that everyone is signed up to. One of the reasons the PACT coalition government of independents that took office in 2021 was ultimately unsuccessful is that it was not bound by shared goals. With big personalities in the room and some contrasting ideas among those figures on key issues, any coalition with a slender parliamentary majority could risk falling apart.
Numerous defections and departures characterised much of the last four years of government.
The early signs from the National Coalition For Caymanians suggest they are doing what they can to learn from the mistakes of the past four years and avoid those pitfalls.
Speaking at a rally in West Bay Saturday night, 3 May, new Premier André Ebanks said the civil service was already working on harmonising the manifestos of the various parties to the coalition and coming up with quick-win policies for the first 100 days, as well as longer-term targets.
“That is going to be the glue that binds us,” he told the Compass.
Agreeing a united policy document, putting it out to the public and consenting to be held accountable collectively for progress on those goals would be a clear signal that this time is going to be different. More than that, it would be a statement of intent to the country that this is a government with a clear plan and the courage to ask the people to hold them to account to get it done.
2. A pathway towards immigration reform
Everyone on all sides in this election campaigned to one degree or another on immigration reform.
The Compass understands that Rolston Anglin, while he has taken the education and finance ministries, pushed hard for this issue to be top of mind for the coalition.
Both The Caymanian Community Party and the Cayman Islands National Party listed this as a key priority, with Dan Scott – who missed out on a seat but remains a key figure in the CINP, which he founded – hammering the government and, by association, the Progressives, during the leaders debate on 9 April, for allowing the average of four new Caymanian status grants every day over the last year.
The question to resolve now, says Mario Ebanks, is how to achieve the change people want without harming the economy.
“I think we will see revisions of the [permanent residency] points system and I think we will see some restrictions coming in on right to Caymanian status,” Ebanks said.
He added there would need to be some middle ground found between protecting government income and ensuring more managed growth in future, which is something he believes the coalition has a mandate to pursue.
In the immediate term, he believes a moratorium is likely on new applications for permanent residency and perhaps also for Caymanian status while the detail is worked out.
All parties to the coalition talked about workforce development and an integrated approach to education, training and immigration with a view to ensuring Caymanians can train for and get opportunities in the most lucrative jobs.
Speaking to the Compass last week, Premier Ebanks and his deputy Gary Rutty said they would look to make quick wins on immigration within the first 100 days and move on to develop a human capital plan for Cayman.
3. Sort out the finances
André Ebanks, in his first interview with the Compass since being nominated as premier, told us his number one job was to get the budget under control.
“The first thing is to get a handle on the country’s finances because, without the budget, you can’t plan what you are going to do about everything else,” he said.
The pre-election forecast was a huge talking point on the campaign, and one of the first jobs for the finance minister will be to shuffle the budget in whatever way he can to ensure the projected deficit does not occur.
That is easier said than done, with the coalition coming into government on the back of a campaign where commitments have been made to tackle a host of serious issues, from healthcare to traffic and transport reform.
But, on this issue, all of the partners of the NCFC have been singing from the same hymn sheet.
Michael Myles, who has been appointed minister of Caymanian employment and immigration, said in a statement to his supporters last week that balancing the budget would be the basis for all other priorities. Speaking to Compass TV’s Forefront show on 8 May, André Ebanks said the budget was the “lifeblood of policy”.
4. Smooth the waters after fractious cruise debate
The people have spoken, and it would be a brave government that attempted to go against the resounding results of the referendum and push for cruise piers now. If, as seems likely, the coalition shelves that plan, then the problem does not go away.
It’s possible that the overzealous campaigning of the Association for Cruise Tourism may have exaggerated the extent to which cruise will decline without a pier, and the number of jobs and livelihoods that would be impacted. But that was not based on nothing.
After a rancorous referendum run-up, it will be up to Rutty, as the new tourism minister, to help smooth the waters and come up with a plan that can work for everyone.
Perhaps the comfort of a clear decision will give Cayman Marine Services the confidence to invest in its tender boat business and the Port Authority licence to make low-cost improvements to the visitor experience at the dock. Mario Ebanks highlights shelters for passengers waiting in line, seats for the elderly, drinking water and public toilets, among a few ‘easy wins’.
The longer-term issue of whether cruise lines will continue to come here is an important conversation for Rutty and his colleagues to have with the major cruise lines. Our sources suggest that while some further erosion of visitor numbers could be expected, it will plateau and a smaller but still significant cruise industry will remain in Cayman.
For the bus drivers and tour operators that lose out, perhaps there is succour in the fact that the coalition may also look to create jobs in a new public transport system.
5. Quick wins on public transport
The Deloitte report on public transport has been gathering dust for over a year. Both TCCP and CINP indicated they would pull it out of the filing cabinet and see what quick wins they could achieve on public transport.
As the Compass reported pre-election, all parties said they would complete the East-West Arterial highway – though TCCP caveated this with a desire to choose the route with the least environmental impact.
The party also promoted the idea of park-and-ride centres and proper bus stations, a clear timetable with routes that run to all parts of the island throughout the day and an app to keep commuters informed. It also suggested licensing fee concessions for people who used public transport.
The CINP was broadly similar in some of its aims with the addition of introducing more buses for both public and private schools.
All those could go in the ‘quick win’ column while a more cohesive master plan for transport is worked out.
The longer-term work of creating a mass transit system that genuinely gets people out of their cars will likely take at least a full administration to get on the road. Linking these goals to workforce development and providing transitional training for those losing a share of the cruise business seems a sensible parallel strategy.
6. Decide whether to roll the dice on a lottery
It is difficult to know what to make of the referendum results.
The ‘no’ vote on cruise is clear enough.
The ‘yes’ vote on cannabis legislation reform could also be a simple, if relatively insignificant move. Decriminalising small amounts of marijuana involves a minor tweak to the criminal code that could be achieved quickly. But the reality is that few people are actually charged purely for possession and this would simply formalise what is standard practice anyway.
The lottery is a much bigger call. The public was given no information going into this about what a lottery would involve, how much it could be expected to yield, what the weekly jackpot might be, and the potential pitfalls of addiction, which is becoming a menace in countries with a more permissive approach to gambling.
Crucially, the referendum is advisory. It doesn’t really establish it as priority for people over other concerns that were not on the ballot.
The relative lack of discussion of this issue on the campaign trail suggests it should probably not be top of mind.
“I think they can just note it as something that people are interested in,” Mario Ebanks said.
“It doesn’t necessarily elevate it as priority. I am sure the opposition will be making the point that this is the will of the people and pressing for action, but I think this is one they could sidestep with many other topics requiring more urgent attention.”
7. Make a big decision on the Cayman Brac school
Originally pitched as a $25 million project, the cost of a new high school on Cayman Brac had risen to more than $45 million to design and build by the time a final business case was approved by Cabinet in October.
That figure, which did not include an additional $8.5 million for an accommodation block to house the workers that will build it, has escalated further, the Compass understands.
The escalating costs of the project were cited by the four MPs who resigned from the independent UPM coalition and went on to found The Caymanian Community Party as one of the reasons for their departure.
The business case report highlighted the cost per student as three times higher than John Gray High School – a stop-start, 15-year project that ended up costing well in excess of $100 million.
The consultants wrote that the cost analysis “does challenge whether the project can be determined to be value for money”.
Now that the project has lost its main political sponsor – former Premier Juliana O’Connor-Connolly, who is now on the opposition benches – government could decide to cut it entirely or stage the development over a number of years to save money and create room for other infrastructure.
A contractor had been identified as preferred bidder and a contract signed, but that does not necessarily mean a new arrangement cannot be negotiated, according to sources close to the government.
Premier Ebanks told us the coalition would need to see the contract and determine if it could be scaled down. Much will depend on the nature of what the previous government has signed.
He said the first question would be, “Is it fixed? If it isn’t fixed, is there a pathway for us to be able to modify it?”
8. Make some early calls on infrastructure
Cayman’s infrastructure needs are long and diverse.
Beach replenishment on Seven Mile, a proper public transport system, a prison that meets global human rights standards, the expansion of all three airports, the landfill, an upgraded cargo port, the East-West Arterial highway, public housing and a sub-sea telecoms cable lead a long list of necessary capital investments over the next 10 years.
It is far-fetched to expect any government to make significant progress on more than two or three of those in one administration.
The coalition must quickly decide how and what to proceed with. A key challenge here could be balancing the slightly greener tilt of TCCP with the reality that some of these projects, including extending the airport runway into the North Sound or developing a new cargo port, will likely cause significant environmental impact.
In terms of what is economically achievable, Sam Story, a managing director at Teneo, who has advised on business cases for a variety of Cayman’s infrastructure developments, told the Compass that identifying projects with obvious revenue streams could help fast-track certain national projects.
With limited funds available, he said government would either have to prioritise some projects and mothball others, or find ways of generating new revenue streams to finance them.
He added that the best way to manage infrastructure needs, which are likely to span multiple election cycles, was through an overarching long-term plan that involves input from all sides of the political spectrum and considers the thoughts and ideas of all stakeholders and the public.
9. Clarify the plan on conservation law
The return of Katherine Ebanks-Wilks to the sustainability ministry is a hint that the coalition will not mess with the National Conservation Act.
Ebanks-Wilks and three of her TCCP colleagues resigned rather than sponsor amendments to the act, which they believed would water it down.
The minority UPM government then revamped the National Conservation Council in a controversial reshuffle that is now subject to a judicial review from ousted members.
New governments usually appoint new boards anyway, and it will be interesting to see how the coalition handles the council. It could save itself the stress and cost of a legal fight by appointing a new board and negotiating the end to that dispute.
One wrinkle is that both Jay Ebanks and Isaac Rankine were part of the Cabinet that made those changes, so the divisions that existed in the old group could conceivably resurface here. One would expect that the hatchet had to be buried before the coalition was formed, however. But the different perspectives of Jay Ebanks, who retains control of the Ministry of Planning and Infrastructure, and his TCCP coalition partners is something that will need to be managed carefully.
10. A development plan that prioritises housing
The need for a new development plan in Cayman has been evident for over a decade. The last update was in 1997 and the islands’ population has more than doubled in that time.
It is not just pro-conservation voices that are asking for a plan; developers also want clarity before they put any money into major projects.
The coalition could rightly say they have a mandate to move on a development plan that puts increasing housing for Caymanians at its centre. That’s not a job they can do alone, despite the best efforts of Jay Ebanks to ramp up building from the National Housing Development Trust.
So any plan must tread a delicate balance between preserving the last pockets of Cayman’s natural wilderness – a priority for many who voted for TCCP – ensuring infrastructure keeps up with the pace of population growth – a key talking point for the CINP – and incentivising the kind of investment in housing that is needed to make homes more affordable for middle-class Caymanians – a key priority for just about everyone.