Staff at the US National Hurricane Center in Florida continue to work on the storm surge and wave inundation model for the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.
That’s according to Cayman Islands National Weather Service’s chief meteorologist, Kerry Powery Linwood, who recently returned from the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee meeting, which took place in El Salvador from 31 March to 3 April.
“Budget cuts at NOAA and the US National Weather Service may hinder the amount of effort they are able to put into producing the model, but they [NOAA representatives] said reasonably confidently that it will continue to be worked on,” he said.
Powery explained that in light of cuts to both budget and personnel at NOAA, of which the NHC is a part, the Cayman Islands Government had been looking at contingency plans and alternatives for the inundation model, which is considered a key forecasting tool for one of the major threats to the Cayman Islands.
“We are looking at alternatives in case they are unable to follow through,” he said.
In 2004, Hurricane Ivan brought an estimated 8- to 10-foot storm surge to parts of Grand Cayman, leading to significant property damage.
Since that time, the population has nearly doubled in the Cayman Islands, from around 44,000 in 2004 to nearly 85,000 in 2023. While there were remarkably few fatalities associated with storm surge and hurricane-driven waves in Hurricane Ivan, there are concerns that surge and waves in hurricanes and tropical storms could be life threatening.
The ability to forecast likely inundation levels and identify areas of higher vulnerability prior to a hurricane making landfall is considered a key public safety tool during the tropical cyclone season, which runs from 1 June to 31 Nov.
The meeting of regional tropical cyclone experts occurs once every year, and it was at the same RA IV Hurricane Committee meeting back in 2023 that it was announced that work on the Cayman Islands inundation model would begin.
This announcement followed an appeal to the committee from former Premier Wayne Panton, who asked to have the Cayman Islands considered a priority, in part due to the very high vulnerability of the islands to surge.
At the time, Panton said, “The acceptance of my request to be included with Jamaica in this critically important modelling gave me much comfort that our plans to improve safe evacuation routes, improve storm water management to protect neighbourhoods and of critical importance, to build resiliency in this country could be made stronger with that data.”
The US National Hurricane Center is designated by the World Meteorological Organization as the regional specialised meteorology centre for the Caribbean. It is also the tropical cyclone warning centre for the US and all of the countries in the Caribbean Sea.