The price tags on grocery items are rising fast, driven by sweeping new US tariffs, and bringing Cayman’s reliance on American transshipment under the spotlight. Jamaica – Cayman’s closest neighbor and long-standing regional partner – could offer a shorter, more resilient supply chain amid growing global uncertainty.
With Cayman’s US-centric supply chain showing cracks, the case for looking closer to home has never been stronger. In a previous Compass investigation, we followed the long, complex path many foods take – often travelling thousands of miles – to reach local shelves. In the face of mounting tariffs and rising global uncertainty, we set out to determine what the prospects are for deepening our trade relationship with Jamaica.
Cayman’s dependence on the US
US President Donald Trump’s recently announced 10% blanket tariff on imports, along with steeper duties on goods from 57 countries, is set to push prices higher for products that may not even originate in the US, but still pass through American ports on their way to the Cayman Islands.
Given Cayman’s reliance on hubs like Miami, that means double taxation – tariffs on top of existing import duties – for many everyday goods.
The impact is already being felt locally.
Recent signage at Foster’s grocery stores informs customers that higher costs on shrimp and dried saltfish are due to tariffs – not supplier mark-ups. Meanwhile, importers like Progressive Distributors are exploring options, from leveraging bonded warehouses and free trade zones in Florida to hunting for new source markets.
In an interview with the Cayman Compass, Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre, a joint agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, stressed the vulnerability of Cayman’s food system.
“The Cayman Islands is highly dependent on food imports, with a large trade deficit in food products averaging -$139 million between 2019 and 2023,” she said. “About 99% of what is consumed is imported, and 78% of that comes through US ports.”
That level of dependence has long left Cayman vulnerable to external shocks, but Trump’s latest tariffs have made the risks even more acute. Even goods produced in countries like Norway, Chile, and Canada, such as salmon and other fish, now face US duties simply for passing through American ports.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 85% of seafood consumed in the US is imported, and those same supply chains feed Cayman as well.
Norwegian salmon, now facing a 15% US tariff, and fish from Chile and Canada, subject to 10% duties, are among the products likely to see sharp price increases in Cayman. Coffee from Latin America and European olive oil are also affected, with the latter hit by a 20% tariff.
In short, Cayman’s food prices are being squeezed not only by what it buys, but by how and where those goods travel.
Untapped trade potential between Jamaica and Cayman
Though separated by just 270 miles, Jamaica supplies less than 12% of Cayman’s food imports. This lacks consistency with the geographic proximity, deep cultural ties and shared history that have long linked the islands through labour, remittances and community.
Jamaica’s export base is expanding, with growing capacity and untapped regional potential. The International Trade Centre estimates that Jamaica has over $1.6 million in untapped export potential to Cayman.
But challenges remain.
In a prior interview with the Compass, Jacques Scott managing director Peter Dutton explained that regional sourcing of produce and other goods remains limited due to a lack of scale, making it less cost-effective than established shipping routes. As a result, even goods from the wider Caribbean are typically routed through Miami before reaching Cayman, a route that is neither the most convenient nor the most affordable for distributors.
While the opportunity is clear, the path is anything but straightforward.
“Jamaica’s export capacity remains limited compared to large suppliers like the US,” Coke-Hamilton told the Compass. “It has a relatively narrower and less diversified agricultural base and faces structural production constraints. Jamaica itself is a net food importer.”
Logistics remain a persistent hurdle in Caribbean trade.
The region’s shipping routes are notoriously imbalanced. Vessels arrive fully loaded from northern ports but sail back largely empty, driving up the cost of southbound freight.
Limited economies of scale further complicate matters, often forcing Jamaican exports to detour through US ports before reaching Cayman. Airlift between the two islands has not been significantly leveraged as a potential alternative for transporting food.
Sanitary and phytosanitary regulations have also posed obstacles. Cayman’s strict plant health rules mean Jamaican produce must come from certified farms, be carefully inspected, and include official clearance from both countries. Shipments are checked again on arrival to ensure they’re clean, safe and pest-free.
But through the work of the Climate Plant Health Directors Technical Working Group and regional biosecurity and pest interception and diagnostic platforms, those barriers are slowly coming down.
“Both countries have established a strong framework for cooperation, which has proven effective in removing SPS barriers and enhancing the flow of bilateral trade,” said Shelleka Darby, international trade specialist at Jamaica’s Ministry of Agriculture. “We also share the view that improvements in the cost and, to a lesser extent, the availability, of airlift and other logistical services could further support the growth of bilateral trade.”
Jamaica’s minister of agriculture, Floyd Green, is calling for standardised agricultural trade rules across the region to streamline exports. He believes uniform regional standards and mutual recognition agreements could fast-track progress.
He said that a memorandum of understanding between Jamaica and Cayman is in the works to help formalise trade facilitation.
Growing trade opportunities
Over the past few years, the range of Jamaican products entering the Cayman market has been expanding with plenty of room to grow.
Jamaican exports to Cayman grew by an annualised rate of 20.2% between 2018 and 2023, rising from US$14.5 million to US$36.4 million. Cayman is now Jamaica’s fourth-largest destination for food exports, behind the US, Canada, and the UK; and Jamaica is Cayman’s second largest market for imports.
In the third quarter of 2024, imports from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands increased by 24.6%, rising from $12.63 million to $15.7 million – accounting for 5% of Jamaica’s total food export value.
Green credits the steady growth to political commitment and technical collaboration.
“Over the last three years, we’ve seen a significant uptick in exports to Cayman,” he told the Compass. “It’s the result of direct collaboration between our governments and our technical teams.”
A 2022 agreement expanded the list of approved Jamaican exports to Cayman, adding breadfruit, plantains, ackee and soursop to 44 existing commodities.
“The collaboration and growth in trade of agricultural products between Jamaica and Cayman will serve as an example in the region,” said Cayman’s agriculture minister, Jay Ebanks, in response to the milestone.
Yams and sweet potatoes, previously restricted due to sanitary and phytosanitary measures, are also beginning to flow in.
The ITC’s Export Potential Map, which assesses export viability based on supply capacity and market access, points to a larger truth: Jamaica could be a far more significant food partner.
A path to the future
The push for deeper regional integration is becoming a strategic necessity, as Cayman looks to reduce its dependence on US supply chains.
Currently, only 20% of the region’s trade is internal, but a 2023 International Monetary Fund report suggests that closing infrastructure gaps could boost exports by 30% and lift GDP by 7%.
Strengthening ties with Jamaica is central to this vision. With shared cultural roots, geographic proximity and a growing trade relationship, the islands are well positioned to build a more resilient and secure food system.
Still, change won’t be easy. Cayman’s reliance on US suppliers is deeply embedded, and consumers are accustomed to familiar brands.
“The process of exploring alternative source markets is complex and depends on factors like pricing, availability, shipping and customer preferences,” says a Foster’s Supermarket representative. “Substantial groundwork would be required before any major strategic transition could be considered.”
Yet, necessity often drives transformation. Soaring prices, geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain volatility are forcing a reassessment.
As Green puts it: “Sometimes small islands look too far afield. Maybe the solution is right here in the region.”