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President Donald Trump called his top advisers to the Oval Office early last month and included Richard Grenell, his envoy for Venezuela.
Trump had told Grenell to make a deal that would let U.S. companies access Venezuela’s huge oil and mineral reserves, while also pushing the country to help stop drug and gang activity. Grenell had made progress—winning the release of U.S. prisoners and restarting deportation flights—by keeping direct contact with Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted a tougher line. Rubio, now also acting national security adviser, has long opposed leftist dictators in Latin America.
Backed by Cuban and Venezuelan exiles in Florida, he argued that Maduro was running a drug empire that harmed the U.S. and fueled migration. This idea appealed to Trump’s focus on crime and the border, even though Venezuela produces little cocaine.
Soon after, Trump approved military strikes on small boats near Venezuela, claiming they carried drugs or cartel members. At least 65 people have been killed in 16 attacks so far.
The White House said these were “narco-terrorist” targets, but offered little proof. During a call with Grenell, Trump praised him but then ordered him to stop negotiating with Maduro, saying, “We’re going to try something new.”
In the following weeks, the U.S. began its biggest military buildup in the Caribbean since 1962. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, eight warships, 10,000 troops, and other forces are now near Venezuela.
Even Trump supporters worry this could lead to a new war, something Trump had promised to avoid. “People in his team are thinking more about South Florida politics than America First,” one ally said.
Maduro now faces pressure to give up power or risk attack. Trump views Venezuela as a key front against China and Russia’s influence in the Americas, recalling the Monroe Doctrine’s warning against foreign control in the region. Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral wealth remain central to his plans.
Trump and Rubio first cooperated on Latin America during his first term, backing opposition leader Juan Guaidó to oust Maduro. When Guaidó failed, Trump lost patience. He later sent Grenell to negotiate Maduro’s exit, but talks fell apart before the 2020 election. After regaining power this year, Trump revived those efforts, and Grenell again secured prisoner releases and deportation deals.
But Rubio, now in charge of both foreign policy and national security, pushed instead for a hardline strategy linking Venezuela’s government to criminal gangs and migration.
Rubio’s rise has given him the power to merge anti-communist goals with Trump’s domestic priorities. He claims Maduro works with China and Russia to threaten the U.S., and that Venezuela uses migration to destabilize it.
The administration labeled several Latin gangs, including Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, as terrorist groups, though U.S. intelligence doubted this. Trump increased the bounty on Maduro to $50 million and confirmed CIA authority for “lethal activities” in Venezuela. Online, he shared videos of drug boats destroyed by missiles.
Critics say the campaign is more about regime change than fighting drugs. Venezuela mainly serves as a transit route for cocaine from Colombia, not a major producer. Most cocaine for the U.S. moves through the Pacific, not the Caribbean.
Colombia’s president accused Washington of starting “a new theater of war” and said Colombian citizens were among those killed—claims denied by the White House. In response, the U.S. imposed sanctions on him and his family.
Maduro denied being a drug lord and wrote directly to Trump, warning that America was using “false accusations” to justify war. U.S. officials say Trump remains undecided between diplomacy and force.
The USS Ford left port slowly, suggesting there’s no rush. Rubio denied reports of an imminent invasion, and insiders say Grenell’s negotiations could restart soon.
Some officials argue that toppling Maduro by force could lead to chaos. The military might not back the opposition and could fracture into rival groups. Others say Maduro could accept exile if given immunity, lifted sanctions, and safe passage. “With enough pressure and reward, anything’s possible,” said one source familiar with the talks.
Still, Trump’s team has provided little legal or strategic explanation for the strikes. Even conservative voices like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson have criticized the campaign. Supporters of a harder line insist Maduro has offered no real path out of power, while others note Trump can always declare victory and stop short of invasion.
For now, the buildup allows Trump to keep all options open—fighting drugs, pushing regime change, or securing resources—without committing to any one path. But sooner or later, he must choose: deal or war. If he sides with Grenell, he risks angering Miami’s exile community; if he sides with Rubio, he may alienate “America First” voters.
Trump has often used bluffing in foreign policy. He may be doing so again. Over the weekend, he told CBS News he doubted there would be a war with Venezuela—but added that Maduro’s “days were numbered.”
For a more detailed account of this story, read more at The Atlantic.
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