The Cayman Islands is set to outperform many of its Caribbean peers over the next five years, with BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, forecasting steady stayover tourism growth through 2029.
According to BMI’s ‘Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2025’, over the 2025–2029 period, Cayman’s visitor arrivals are forecast to rise by an average of 6.4% annually, one of the strongest sustained growth rates in the region, pushing total air arrivals to 594,460 by 2029.
By comparison, regional tourism growth is expected to average 3% annually, led by modest gains in large-volume markets such as the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Puerto Rico, which are forecast to expand by between 2% and 4% per year.
Over the medium term, from 2025 to 2029, BMI forecasts that arrivals to the Caribbean will climb to nearly 28.8 million visitors. The report attributes this positive trajectory to strong demand from key markets in North America, Europe and Latin America, supported by the Caribbean’s continued affordability and proximity for travelers from these regions.
Cayman tourism
Based on the latest available data from the Department of Tourism, the Cayman Islands recorded 325,456 stayover arrivals between January and August 2025, representing a 2.6% increase over the same period in 2024. While 2025 figures remain about 12% below the 2019 peak of 369,650 for the first eight months of the year, they indicate a steady and resilient recovery trajectory.
BMI Fitch projects that total arrivals for the full year will reach 507,900, slightly surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, with January to August typically accounting for more than two-thirds of annual arrivals and given current headwinds such as weakened US consumer confidence amid the government shutdown, new tariffs and intensifying regional competition, it is highly possible that the final 2025 total will fall short of BMI Fitch’s forecast.
Between 2025 and 2029, Cayman’s hospitality sector is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising visitor demand and strong investor confidence. BMI Fitch projects that the number of available hotel rooms will reach about 4,170 by 2029, reflecting average annual growth of 5 to 7%. This expansion reflects continued development of high-end accommodations and the entry of new international brands.
The growth in hotel capacity aligns with BMI Fitch’s forecast that visitor arrivals will approach 600,000 by 2029, supported largely by steady demand from North America, the region’s dominant source market.
Arrivals from the United States and Canada are projected to climb to 15.8 million across the Caribbean by the end of the forecast period, buoyed by strong air connectivity and proximity to the region.
For Cayman, the US continues to lead by a wide margin, accounting for roughly 83% of total stayover arrivals, according to the Department of Tourism. Officials attribute this strength to intensified marketing in late 2024 and 2025, including targeted digital campaigns and partnerships with major airlines. Enhanced airlift from key US cities has also helped sustain growth.
At the launch of the Department’s new global marketing campaign, Welcome to vaCay, Deputy Director of International Marketing and Promotions Gary Hendricks-Dominguez said Cayman is defining itself as “the premier warm-weather destination” and “the ‘it’ destination in the Caribbean.”