As U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy rolls out at midnight tonight, economist McCarthy Marie offers a nuanced perspective on its potential impact on Dominica. Dominica, along with others in the region, will face a baseline 10% tariff on exports to the United States—a move many fear could hinder economic recovery efforts.
Marie points out that Dominica’s exports to the US are predominantly agricultural products, oils and lotions, and some craft items. Information from the Statistics Office, between 2021 and 2024, Dominica’s exports to the US amounted to a total of around 4.4 million EC dollars (approximately 1.6 million USD) , with an annual average of 1.1 million EC dollars (about 400, 000 USD). Despite the looming tariff, Marie believes the immediate effects may be minimal for these exports.
“A 10% increase in price might not be significantly noticed by consumers, especially in a period of inflation where price rises are expected,” he explains. Marie suggests that the impact on demand for these products will likely be limited, as many consumers in the U.S. and the U.S. Virgin Islands maintain a connection to Dominica’s goods.
However, Marie highlights a more concerning aspect of the tariff policy: the implications for imports which, according to the Statistics Office, totalled approximately 1.2 billion EC dollars (444 million USD) between 2021 and 2024. Goods coming from the United States that are subject to higher tariffs could lead to increased prices in Dominica, particularly for essential items that are already in high demand.
“If tariffs are imposed on third-country goods that pass through the U.S., we could see a rise in costs, prompting us to source directly from those countries,” he warns.
The broader context reveals that Dominica is not alone in facing these challenges. Neighbouring Caribbean nations, such as Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, will also navigate the economic repercussions of Trump’s comprehensive tariff strategy, which affects over 180 countries. Countries like China and Vietnam are set to face even steeper tariffs, highlighting the aggressive nature of the U.S. trade stance.
In response to the pending tariffs, CARICOM Chair and Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, has called for unity among Caribbean nations. She emphasizes that the new tariffs threaten to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in the region’s economy, particularly as the Caribbean heavily relies on imports for essential goods.
“We must engage urgently with the United States to address these economic pressures and work collaboratively to mitigate their impacts,” Mottley stated.
Mottley advocates for a strategic move towards increasing local agricultural production and light manufacturing, echoing the “25 by 2025” initiative aimed at boosting regional self-sufficiency. She encourages Caribbean citizens to support local businesses, thereby fostering economic resilience in the face of external pressures.