by Curlan Campbell
- Atlantic hurricane season, 1 June to 30 November, is likely to be more active than usual
- Wet season may also include dry spells lasting one to 2 weeks, which can harm crops
- Saharan dust helps suppress storm formation by cooling atmosphere
The Caribbean faces overlapping hurricane, wet, and hot seasons. Climatologist Dr Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) warns residents to be prepared for worsening climate threats, including stronger storms, extreme heat waves, and intensified rainfall events.
In a detailed interview following his address at the 2025 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) presentation in Grenada on Thursday, Van Meerbeeck emphasised that while scientists can estimate the level of activity for the upcoming hurricane season, predicting the exact timing and location of impacts remains uncertain. “Those are details we cannot predict at seasonal timescales,” he stated, underscoring the importance of staying updated with forecasts from national meteorological services and disaster management agencies.
Van Meerbeeck warned that the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, is likely to be more active than usual. “Given how hot the seas are around the Caribbean, we predict a season at least as active as the historical average — about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. But it could go as high as 18 or 19 storms, up to 10 hurricanes, and even 4 to 5 major hurricanes in a worst-case scenario.”
He explained that one unpredictable factor in the seasonal forecast is the plumes of Saharan dust that blow off West Africa. These dust plumes often drift into the Caribbean during the summer, helping to suppress storm formation by cooling the atmosphere and drying the air. However, dust forecasts are only reliable a week or two in advance. “If dust levels are low — Scenario A — we can expect a steady ramp-up in storm activity and extreme rainfall through September. If dust is frequent — Scenario B — we could see more erratic patterns with suppressed hurricane activity, but more intense heatwaves and occasional dry spells.”
Apart from storms, the Caribbean faces another rising threat — heat. With global warming pushing sea and air temperatures higher, the region is experiencing more frequent and intense heat events.
“We need to protect ourselves from the heat to ensure our health and productivity aren’t compromised,” Van Meerbeeck said. Vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses, are especially at risk. He noted that strong, prolonged heatwaves could become a hallmark of this season, with heat increasing steadily into September.
While the wet season is crucial for agriculture and water supply, it also brings hazards. “It’s not the regular rain that causes the most problems; it’s the extreme rainfall events,” he warned. These can lead to flash floods and cascading disasters. Residents should be particularly cautious when forecasts predict unusually high rainfall. Van Meerbeeck added that the wet season may also include dry spells lasting one to 2 weeks, which can dry out the land and harm crops at the peak of the heat season.
Reflecting on why today’s extreme climate events are linked to past emissions, Van Meerbeeck explained the science behind the delay. “CO₂ [carbon dioxide] stays in the atmosphere for decades. Some is absorbed by oceans and vegetation, but much of it accumulates, trapping heat.” He likened the climate system to a pot of water: the hotter it gets, the more turbulent it becomes. “The warming we see today is a consequence of emissions from decades ago. That’s why we’re facing more frequent and intense extremes,” he said.